It’s 13-F season, which means the world gets to find out most of what the world’s top fund managers have been up, on a tape-delay basis. The likes of Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn it is fair to say are not day traders but like to stick around in a stock for a long time.
There’s a simple way to identify so-called lottery stocks. A research paper from authors including Alok Kumar of the University of Miami notes that, if all market participants were passive investors, the ratio of dollar volume to market cap would be equal for all stocks. So, look for the stocks with the highest turnover ratios to find the most speculative stocks.
That methodology, applied in reverse, also reveals some of the least speculative names. They include Coca-Cola KO , Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG , Morningstar MORN , BlackRock BLK and, to the surprise of no one, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B . The prize for the least speculative company that had at least some volume was Brooge Energy BROG , an oil refinery and storage company based in the United Arab Emirates.
The buzz The 13-F from Berkshire Hathaway revealed Warren Buffett didn’t do much at all in the fourth quarter. His Apple AAPL position went higher, probably due to the closing of Berkshire Hathaway’s acquisition of Alleghany, and he boosted its stake in Occidental Petroleum OXY while he sharply cut his stakes in U.S. Bancorp USB , Bank of New York Mellon BK and contract chip maker Taiwan Semiconductor 2330 TSM .
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