Analyst Manan Gosalia downgraded Commerce Bancshares and Prosperity Bancshares to underweight from equal weight. He lowered his price targets by a median of 5% on weaker multiples. Commerce Bancshares' new price target of $48 implies shares declining 3.5% from Monday's close. Meanwhile, the analysts' new price target of $60 per share for Prosperity Bancshares implies a 1% loss from where shares closed on Monday.
However, stocks tend to fall sharply after a squeeze. He also referred to the downgrades as "relative valuation calls, given how much the rest of the group has de-rated." Gosalia noted that Commerce and Prosperity Bancshares are the most expensive mid-cap banks covered by Morgan Stanley, trading at more than 15 and 12 times higher than their 2024 earnings per share forward estimates, respectively. Meanwhile, peer banks are trading just seven times higher, said Gosalia.
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