But there are several issues facing investors in the second half. The second quarter is the bottom for earnings The second quarter is expected to see earnings decline 6.8% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv. This is expected to be the "trough" for this earnings cycle. Estimate for the rest of 2023 and into 2024 are all notably higher. S & P 500 Q1: $53.08 Q2: $52.25 Q3: $55.46 Q4: $57.37 Q1 24: $57.36 Q2 24: $59.
That's why investors pay more attention to guidance than to reported results . Investors are always asking: is the earnings trend up, down, or sideways? For the S & P 500, the overall earnings trend this year has been that estimates started higher in the beginning of the year, but have been coming down . The good news is that after coming down in the first half of the year, estimates have stopped dropping.
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