Latest market-sensitive news and views - Aug. 2

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Latest market-sensitive news and views - Aug. 2 Bidenadministration FitchRatings gold

Putin mulls return to Black Sea grain pact | SPR | Helping Taiwan

The Dept. of Energy appears to be holding up refilling portions of the SPR, based on a Bloomberg report. Details below. Members of the World Trade Organization reached an agreement on most of the outstanding issues concerning dispute settlement reform. But there are several loose ends, as explained in the Trade Policy section.

California utility company PG&E is discontinuing what was formerly considered a key fire prevention measure: a tree-trimming program. More in Energy section. The downgrade references the country's recent debt limit arguments, which have been a consistent issue for about two decades, despite a bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until 2025. Fitch indicates that such political standoffs and last-ditch resolutions are leading to declining confidence in fiscal management.

Of note: It was only two weeks ago that President Biden created a team to assess ways to avert future standoffs over the country's debt limit. "Now that the latest debt ceiling crisis is behind us, it is necessary to explore all legal and policy options to prevent Congress from ever again holding hostage the full faith and credit of the United States," the White House statement said at the time.

• Gold gained along with other safe-haven assets after Fitch removed its top tier rating for U.S. sovereign credit. However, observers have seen U.S. crude prices rise to their most significant monthly increase in over a year. This trend is likely to continue, induced by new cuts in the production of oil by major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Putin and Erdogan talk. During a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reiterated the importance of the Black Sea grain deal and expressed his intention to continue his efforts in its reestablishment. Erdogan stressed the need to avoid actions that could increase tensions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, defining the Black Sea initiative as a "bridge of peace.

— China announced two new leaders for its People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, surprising many and causing speculation about shifts in the branch which oversees the nation's nuclear and ballistic missiles. Wang Houbin has been named commander and Xu Xisheng the political commissar of the force. Both were promoted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

However, many members have joined the EU-initiated Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement while disputes involving non-MPIA members, including the U.S., are still unresolved. Molina indicated that consensus has been reached on about 80% of outstanding issues, and for the remaining 20%, negotiations are in progress.

DSB Chair Petter Olberg acknowledged the varied responses and emphasized the need to consider resource constraints when planning future meetings. He suggested a broader agreement was needed before a formal process could begin, leaving the exact timing open-ended. This issue will be reviewed after the summer break.— Senate Republicans urge EPA to withdraw climate rule for power plants.

 

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