Consumer spending has defied Wall Street expectations all year, both by keeping stocks afloat near record levels and by preventing the U.S. economy from running aground into a recession.
“Our view is that the consumer does remain fairly healthy and is able to keep up with prices increase,” he said. A decade of underbuilding also has kept prices from tumbling, even as sales dropped, leaving many people with a big equity cushion in their homes. At the same time, wages have been rising and the economy has refused to capitulate.
That’s because Rosen views today’s higher interest rates as less ominous than others might think, especially with wage gains and strong households balance sheets able to keep the economy humming, even if spending largely has exhausted pandemic savings. In July, sales at U.S. retailers reflected the biggest increase in six months. Higher energy prices could play a role in looming economic data for August. But Rosen still views the backdrop for stocks and short-term Treasury securities as favorable.
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