Glen Hodgson is fellow-in-residence at the C.D. Howe Institute
The supply-side analysis of peak oil was wrong-headed for two key reasons. First, it did not reflect the massive stocks of non-conventional oil, such as that embedded in porous rock and in Canada’s oil sands. Second, and more importantly, supply-side analysis severely underestimated the capacity of the oil industry to innovate and find ways to access these non-conventional sources of oil by developing new extraction technologies, such as fracking and in-situ production.
Energy forecasts are evolving quickly. The International Energy Agency’s 2018 energy forecast projected that global oil demand would grow slowly and steadily to 2040 and beyond. However, that forecast was not consistent with the GHG targets embedded in the Paris Agreement. It’s worth noting the IEA also projected coal consumption would plateau in 2020.
For the oil sector, BP has developed no less than seven scenarios, which demonstrates the degree of uncertainty in forecasting energy use in the years ahead. Arguably, the most likely pathway is called the “ongoing transition” scenario, in which global oil demand reaches a plateau in the late 2030s at around 105 million barrels a day , compared with current global oil demand of around 100 million b/d.
globebusiness Sure. With 2 billion more people expected in next 2 decades.
globebusiness 😊🤘❤️ sweet like the sound of this!!!! Awesome