Handicapping the market from here — what history tells us about the odds the comeback continues

The violence and velocity of the crash-and-surge moves in the major indexes has placed this market in rare company, with relatively few precedents to mine for hints of what has tended to come next.

Still, these analyses cover very narrowly defined conditions, and neither ten nor 19 instances from the past remotely approaches a statistically robust sample.Then there's the fact that they don't quite fit with some circumstances that usually occur in situations like the one this market is in. Then again, while stocks usually do fairly well in election years, they usually do quite poorly leading up to an election in years when the incumbent party loses the White House, as this chart from LPL Financial shows.

There is also a distinct rhythm to markets that, perhaps, makes it a bit more prone to producing extreme momentum readings of the sort that the bullish outlooks above are based on.

Well we counter trade you so...

The history of the 1930s tells us this will be a decade long Great Depression.

What does common sense tell us about the market? Back to near all time highs with an unemployment more than double what it was pre-Covid. That does not make sense.

CNBC, youth football coaching legend here. I have a 28% chance of re-joining the league next season and other odds are even higher. I don’t care if it’s former greats like I am or not. Just do it.

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Stocks rise on jobs data; S&P 500 ends week with solid gainThe stock market closed broadly higher on Wall Street on Thursday as investors welcomed a report showing the U.S. job market continues to climb out of the crater created by the coronavirus. It’s a good thing, Lol There were no ‘gains’ you dumbasses. 4.8 million went back to their jobs because Trump wanted to look good for one press conference. And in rushing that re-opening 1000s more die cases spike, places are shut down again and 1.5 of that 4.8 have already filed for unemployment again It doesn’t make sense... stocks rising as the country burns!?
منبع: latimes - 🏆 11. / 82 ادامه مطلب »

Here’s why U.S. struggles with the coronavirus could lead to Europe’s stock market taking the leadA growing number of prominent Wall Street institutions are making the prediction that 2020 will be the year for Europe’s stock market to outshine its U.S. counterpart as the coronavirus takes diverging tracks in the two economic powerhouses. Because it was the plan all along. 🗣 LOL LOL Your brain is 'COVIDized' MarketWatch!
منبع: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 ادامه مطلب »

U.S. Stocks Edge Up After S&P 500’s Best Quarter in Over 20 YearsU.S. stocks opened the third quarter with small gains Wednesday after data showed the labor market continued to improve in June Somebody is fudging the books. Stocks are not the economy.
منبع: WSJ - 🏆 98. / 63 ادامه مطلب »