for the sector as it faces tighter credit conditions and a wall of debt maturities.Industry experts have been sounding alarms for the commercial real estate sector since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank last month, warning that high levels of commercial mortgage debt held by banks will need to be refinanced in much tough conditions in coming years. Approximately 80% of commercial property debt outstanding is held by small- and medium-sized banks.
Though regional banks have stabilized and fears of a wider banking crisis have ebbed, the collapse of SVB meansThose that continue making loans will be doing so at much higher interest rates than when many commercial mortgages were originally finance. The stress in the market could soon bubble to the surface, as $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate debt comes due in the next three year, Caroll said, at which point it will need to be refinanced or renegotiated somehow.
"Sellers are not realizing how much their properties have lost value, and they're not willing to dump their properties yet because they haven't felt enough pain. They're about to start feeling pain. These lenders are screwed," Caroll warned.
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