Climbing risk-free yields have made bonds far more attractive relative to equities in recent months and the possibility that investors are selling equities to buy fixed income has been blamed for stock market volatility. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, however, notes that investor behaviour has been more nuanced and the potential for corporate stock buying means that, in aggregate, demand for equities will have a net positive effect on market prices in 2024.
The funds to buy fixed income did not come from selling equities. Households remain the largest owners of equities after selling only 0.42 per cent of total stock holdings during the first half of 2023. The average 42 per cent portfolio weighting to equities for households is at the 96th percentile for all results since 1952.
Mr. Kostin said that the largest U.S. defined benefit pension funds are now 104 per cent funded. These funds are now positioned to reduce risk by selling equities and buying more fixed income. He estimates that pension funds will sell US$250-billion in equities in 2024. Much will depend on the plight of global corporate earnings growth. The consensus on the Street points to a strong recovery in profits in 2024 but if this proves overly optimistic, and earnings are revised lower, fixed income will look all the more attractive. Stock market volatility could potentially intensify if this results.This is the Globe Investor newsletter, published three times each week.
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