The Fed surprised the market with an aggressive 50 bps cut recently, which has pushed the S&P 500 back to new all-time highs. However, not all markets are celebrating this move. Bond yields and mortgage rates, for example, have been in an uptrend since this decision, which is not normal to see at the onset of a rate cutting cycle.
The advance seen today is poking above the downtrend line from the July top. However, this is happening on less volume and less momentum. Note the momentum indicator below the chart. It has given three lower highs while price provided three higher highs. This is a rare pattern that tends to precede a trend reversal.and momentum. The momentum indicator reveals three lower highs, while the price shows three higher highs, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
As plausible as this sounds, it’s just not showing up in data, yet. Since the Fed cut rates on September 18, we are not seeing money flowing into your beaten down sectors that should do well if this narrative is playing out. As we just saw, the market is not buying this narrative, as money is not flowing into the sectors that would support this thesis. So, what could be going on?
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