Megacap tech stocks have been on a roll. They could thrive even if interest rates turn higher again.

The megacap technology stocks have been outperforming the broader market of late. The NYSE FANG+ index NYFANG, -0.93% — which includes Facebook FB, -0.91%, Alphabet GOOGL, -0.96%, Amazon AMZN, -1.37% and Apple AAPL, -0.45% — has climbed 5% over the last month, compared with just 1% growth for the equal-weighted S&P 500 SP500EW, -0.26%.

The thing is, that relationship, while sounding logical, isn’t borne out by historical data. Andrew Berkin studied the relationship for a paper, “What Happens to Stocks when Interest Rates Rise.” Looking at 90 years of data, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.33% rose, on average, 10.8% when bond yields fell, and rose 12.2% when bond yields rose. Even separating out periods by quintiles when yields rose the most, the S&P 500 still gained 9%, on average.

Moderna MRNA, +5.28% jumped 8% in premarket trade on the news the vaccine-making biotech will be included in the S&P 500.

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