I have discovered a stock-market timing model with a track record that’s even better than the famous Super Bowl Predictor.
Devotees claim that the Super Bowl Predictor has an uncannily successful track record. If they’re right and it holds up this year, the stock market will rise between the Super Bowl on Feb. 13 and the end of the year if the Los Angeles Rams are the winner. If instead the Cincinnati Bengals are victorious, the stock market should fall.
Real time test since 1978 To calculate the Super Bowl Predictor’s track record, I must focus only on the years since 1978. That’s because it’s a statistical imperative to calculate its track record only in real time, after it was first discovered. Otherwise the results are tainted by so-called hindsight bias.
You shouldn’t be surprised by the Super Bowl Predictor’s disappointing real-time record. Koppett himself introduced it as a joke. Before he died in 2003, Koppett wrote that the indicator was an “embarrassment,” and it would be a “relief” if it could be declared “dead as a doornail.”
MktwHulbert Are we seriously looking at the outcome of the SuperBowl to determine what the stock market will do?