Nvidia Stock: How We Plan To Position For Q2 Earnings

Nvidia Stock: Will a Beat Be Enough?

We believe that the supply that we will have for the second half of the year will be substantially larger than H1 Comparing her response to consensus sales estimates for the remainder of FY24, we come away with a couple of observations.... [+] However, the magnitude of the Q3 guidance will be very important given heightened expectations. Assuming Nvidia meets its Q2 guidance, we’ve put together a simple scenario analysis to parameterize the different outcomes we anticipate based on Nvidia’s potential Q3 guidance. +/- indicates anticipated stock positive or negative price performance on the next trading day based on that scenario.... [+]

We believe the market will react negatively if Nvidia provides Q3 guidance that is in-line with consensus or lower than 12%. On the flip side, Nvidia will likely need to provide guidance of at least greater than 20% for a significant positive reaction. This is because consensus will likely need to make upward revisions to their earnings for the remainder of FY2024 and FY2025. This is critical to support the current valuation.

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