Equity markets like lower bond yields because companies can borrow money more cheaply, which can be used, for example, to buy back shares or take over another business at a premium. It also makes bonds a less attractive competitor for investor assets relative to stocks. For much of the past 15 years, falling bond yields have accompanied higher stock valuations and prices. Now this process may be working in reverse.
The options market-implied forecast for year-end Federal Reserve policy rates spiked from 4.59 per cent on March 28 to 4.94 per cent now. Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Michael Wilson believes that the persistent U.S. economic growth that is keeping inflation pressures high is largely the result of government spending initiatives rather than a new, durable economic expansion. He remains cautious on early cycle, cyclical market sectors like small caps as a result.
Morgan Stanley recommends higher quality stocks, those with low debt and reliable-if-not-spectacular profit growth, to combat expected volatility and the potential for economic growth to stall as fiscal spending fades. The strategist recently upgraded large cap energy stocks as a valuation-conscious way to benefit from current economic reflationary pressure.
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