Foreign investment in Egypt may not go the distance

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Bankers and economists warn that a yield bonanza in Egypt masks an economy with weak prospects and heightened political risk

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry meets with Saudi Arabia's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir at Tahrir Palace in Cairo, Egypt July 27, 2020. Picture: REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY

A deployment of armed forces into Libya could lead to higher military spending at a time when Covid-19 is already hitting the budget deficit. “The political risk has deteriorated,” said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer Research. More than half of the hotels are back in business after two months of lockdown and those still closed will probably reopen by November, he added.The government expected growth of 3.5% in the fiscal year 2020/2021, which began in July, but growth could slow to 2% if the coronavirus crisis continues until year-end, Planning Minister Hala al-Saeed said in May.

“The inflows have indeed been at the short end of the curve, reflecting higher short term yields and the potential for near-term strengthening in the pound, which make the carry trade the most lucrative in Egypt at the moment,” said Soussa.

 

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