Why US economy won't collapse despite Congress not passing COVID aid bill - Business Insider

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Opinion | Economists are worried America's economic recovery is about to fall apart without more help from Congress. Here's why they're wrong. By Neil Dutta of RenMacLLC.

A 'we are open' is sprayed on boards outside of a Smoke Shop as the city continues Phase 4 of re-opening following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on September 30, 2020 in New York City.There is growing concern that the US economic recovery from the depth of the coronavirus pandemic is starting to lose steam and Congress needs to pass another fiscal aid bill.

through year end. While additional fiscal help would be welcome, the evidence shows that the US recovery continues. Indeed, there are even clear reasons for an acceleration in activity. It begins with the housing market, which is currently enjoying a rapid expansion. New home sales have surged about 40% so far this year. Note that this includes the sharp declines from February to April. Because they represent signed contracts, new home sales represent a leading indicator of activity.

Of course, the applications of this type of program extend well beyond commercial aviation – concerts, theaters, and amusement parks come to mind. In the meantime, it's worth noting that a slow and steady recovery in low value added services continues as many states and cities push ahead with reopening plans. Finally, there might be more momentum behind the economy than most appreciate. After all, as fiscal policy tightened, many assumed that growth would slow appreciably.

Some have noted that the lack of additional fiscal action has left the economy out in the cold. Federal Reserve officials have been among those calling for more government spending to speed up the recovery.

 

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