NEW YORK, Oct 30 — Investors are weighing whether momentum from the stock market’s record-breaking rally will continue in the last two months of 2021, a traditionally strong calendar period for equities but a stretch that may carry more risks than usual this year.
“If the appropriate items fall into place you could continue the seasonality of a year-end rally,” said Alan Lancz, president of investment advisory firm Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio. One major test for that run will come as the Fed begins to taper its bond buying programme, a move the central bank is expected to announce at the end of its monetary policy meeting next week. While officials have telegraphed plans to begin reducing bond buying as early as November, investors will be listening for signals that the recent surge in inflation may force the central bank to taper and eventually raise interest rates faster than expected.
Investors are tracking volatility in the bond market, which has come as rates for short-term US government bonds soared in response to expectations that surging inflation will force the Fed and other central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. While those recent moves have not weighed on stocks, surges in longer-dated Treasury yields could make equities less attractive for some investors.
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