Fresh off the stock market's worst quarter since the Covid-induced downturn two years ago, many experts still aren't convinced a recession is in the cards this year, but some are warning the risks could keep rising through next year as the Federal Reserve eases stimulus measures—signaling more bad news for stocks.
"If there's a true growth scare with recession probabilities rising materially," the S&P could tank as much as 16%, Wilson calculates, pointing out the plunge to 3,460 points would line up with the index's pre-pandemic highs—"where a lot of stocks have already ventured." Though Wilson reckons lingering high prices could deter consumer spending in coming months and push economic growth deeper into negative territory, other experts aren't calling for a recession just yet—even though they're acknowledging the risks are rising.
“Recession risks are low now, but elevated in 2023," Bank of America economist Ethan Harris said in a Friday note, positing that ongoing inflation could force the Fed to hike interest rates"until it hurts," thereby eating at corporate profits and perhaps spurring a slew of layoffs. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius is more optimistic, telling clients on Monday that"a recession is not inevitable" and placing the odds of one at 15% over the next year and 35% over the next two years.
Most American media are avoiding any recession reporting is a shame not preparing americans , just look at Amazon loose last week people can’t afford to keep buying Chinese junk