Morgan Stanley’s been widely credited, at least among the major Wall Street banks, for correctly predicting the rough ride that stocks would endure this year.What’s hit U.S. stocks so much this year– the S&P 500 SPX has dropped 18% — has been... Morgan Stanley’s been widely credited, at least among the major Wall Street banks, for correctly predicting the rough ride that stocks would endure this year.What’s hit U.S.
Morgan Stanley says its earnings model, based on inputs including the ISM manufacturing report, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, housing starts and credit spreads, suggests a big drop in earnings to come. Another model, based mostly on regional Fed data, also is forecasting an earnings slump.
Wilson says the firm is more confident, however, that bonds have bottomed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y was 3.19% on Friday.