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Stocks won't have 'sustainable rally' until bond yield hits pre-financial crisis level

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Stocks have largely been held back by rising bond yields. But one strategist sees a key potential turning point around 5.25% on the 10-year Treasury yield.

have been a key indicator for stock sentiment in recent weeks. As yields have surged to 16-year highs, the S&P 500 has slowly given back yearly gains."For equities to have a sustainable rally, interest rates likely need to stabilize," Lerner wrote in a new research note on Monday.

That could take some time. The last time 10-year yields were this high 16 years ago, bond traders held out on buying until real yields — those adjusted for inflation — peaked at about 2.8%. That could be what investors are waiting for again this time, Lerner says. Flags are seen outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, New York U.S., February 24, 2022. REUTERS/Caitlin OchsA price cap on Russian oil aims to starve Putin of cash. But it's largely been untested. Until nowKevin O'Leary says you need to have $5M in the bank to 'survive' no matter what happens — here's the math behind his number and how to hit it

 

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