Goldman gives 4 scenarios for stocks: One sees S&P 500 rallying to 6,000, another calls for a drop to 4,500

The market's surprising rally has lifted the S & P 500 to Goldman Sachs' year-end target before the first-quarter is even over, so the firm is giving clients various scenarios that could happen from here. If their target ends up being correct and stocks pull back, Goldman recommended clients get long its basket of defensive stocks.

The four scenarios for the market from here are the following: Catch-up scenario: The S & P 500 finishes the year at 5,800, or up another 11% from here, with "a shift in the the interest rate outlook without a deterioration in the economy is necessary for the market rally to broaden." The shift leads to the valuation of a broader array of stocks catching up, according to the bank.

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