South Africa’s debt level is projected to rise to 70% of GDP by 2022, and assuming no policy intervention, will rise to 80.9% of GDP by 2027 and continue its upward trajectory from there.It’s a snowball,” says Lusani Mulaudzi, the incoming president of the Actuarial Society of SA. “As the debt rises and interest compounds, the amount to be repaid snowballs, which means we will reach 80% faster than we reached 70%. From there it’s into the arms of the IMF.
How to begin to shift this mentality is a question that Mulaudzi is grappling with. Actuaries are trained to solve complex problems and communicate possible solutions in layman’s lingo – and these don’t have to be confined to the arcane workings of an insurance company or medical aid. The Public Interest Portfolio has already kicked off by focusing on National Health Insurance, the proposed Road Accident Benefit Scheme Bill, optimal resourcing of government departments, and the State Liability Amendment Bill that deals with settlement of medical claims against the state.
The challenge for both government and actuaries, he says, lies in the nature of the solutions that are provided.In the private sector, the work we do is valued. But in the government sector, where there are many different stakeholders, our reports may not be palatable.”