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Next recession timing is spring 2020, cause will be rare, SocGen says - Business Insider

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'We see a springtime recession': A Wall Street firm that is counting down to the next crisis says its trigger will be unlike any in recent history

, are taking the stock market's return to all-time highs as a cue that the economy will rebound in the months ahead.

"The US recession is in our view likely to be a relatively short-lived affair, with negative growth expected to persist for only two quarters and sub-trend growth for four," said a team of economists led by Klaus Baader in their 2020 outlook.with precision is not lost on SocGen. After all, they originally expected a recession to arrive in 2018, only for tax cuts to keep the economy afloat.

"Rather, we see the next US recession as being brought on by an intensifying profit squeeze, which in turn is caused by rapidly accelerating labor costs," Baader said. and its subsequent impact on corporate profits are the factors that could cause the next recession, not classic catalysts like asset bubbles, credit crunches, and Fed errors.

 

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If the worker is not paid a wage which allows them to pay for living expenses, savings and luxury items then money will not flow through the economic system. The wealthy certainly are not going to spend their own money.

The crash and recession will happen if any of the Democrats start to look like serious contenders against Trump, similar to what happened with Obama in 2008.

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