Did stocks tank on Monday because they were finally noticing danger signs that the bond market has been screaming about for weeks? Or did equities just react in a reasonable way to the rapid spread of Covid-19 in South Korea and Italy over the weekend?
The answer matters because overexuberant shares tend to fall further and faster than they otherwise would. That means the virus-induced stock selloff could turn into a nasty recoupling if there was an irrational divergence between bonds and the stock market.
jmackin2 It was a reasonable response, but to information about impacts to supply chains that was available nearly a month ago.
jmackin2 Some people are filth
jmackin2 I enjoyed this story. But would point out something I see as important: Outperformance of defensive, pre-recession, 'boring' assets isn't new. It's been in place since Q1 2018- long before anyone heard of this virus. There's a message in that: We're very late in the cycle. See👇
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