You’ll hear other explanations, such as the risk of a second wave of COVID-19 infections and the Fed’s grim outlook for the U.S. economy. But such factors can’t really explain why the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -6.89% lost 6.9% while the S&P 500 SPX, -5.89% fell 5.9% on Thursday.
One indicator that helps fill this explanatory void is market sentiment. Only this week did bullishness among short-term market timers start to reach a dangerous extreme; contrarians therefore were not particularly surprised by Thursday’s decline. Consider the average recommended stock market exposure level among several dozen short-term stock market timers that I monitor on a daily basis . Earlier this week, this average rose to 62.5%, which was at the 91st percentile of the distribution of daily HSNSI readings since 2000. That’s just inside the zone of extreme bullishness, as defined by being in the top 10% of such readings—as you can see from the accompanying chart.
We’re far from that now. In the wake of Thursday’s plunge, the HSNSI dropped back just to 53.6%, which is still at the 77th percentile of the historical distribution.
I think we need to pull a Travolta-Broken-Arrow on Market Watch. Step away from the graph. You're too close to it. This is what it actually looks like. As you can see: there are no plunges. These are just fluctuations. It's going sideways.
Because states are loosening restrictions far too soon and in all the states that have previously loosened restrictions cases of Coronavirus have increased as is happening in California this week while restrictions started to be lifted
BIY CHEAP STOCKS NOW AND BIY MORE YO KEEP FOR INTERMEDIATE TERM
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