For example, because stock markets are forward-looking, current stock prices may reflect optimism about the imminent arrival of effective COVID-19 vaccines and radically improved testing and treatment options, which would allow for a more limited and nuanced approach to lockdowns.
And because tech firms’ revenue streams are tilted far into the future, they have benefited disproportionately from low interest rates.But, again, it is not clear that markets are correct in anticipating a never-ending continuation of low interest rates. After all, the long-term adverse supply effects, particularly from deglobalisation, may linger long after global demand has recovered.
At some point, markets will be disabused of the notion that taxpayers will cover everything indefinitely. It is falling on small businesses and individual service proprietors – from dry cleaners to restaurants to entertainment providers – that are not listed on the stock market . In fact, that is yet another reason for the market euphoria. True, some large businesses have filed for bankruptcy protection, but most – not least brick-and-mortar retailers – were already in trouble before the pandemic.Further underscoring the unequal impact of the pandemic, government tax revenues have not fallen by nearly as much as one might expect, given the magnitude of the recession and record post-war unemployment levels .
One likely outcome, especially if the ongoing process of deglobalisation makes it more difficult for corporations to shift their operations to low-tax countries, will be a reversal of the trend decline in corporate tax rates.
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