Her new book, "In it, Duke uses her expertise in poker and cognitive psychology to create a framework for making tough and overwhelming decisions rationally and strategically.
An explicit part of the positive-thinking literature is that imagining success will cause you to succeed. Implied — and occasionally explicitly stated — is that if you imagine failure, that will cause you to fail. "The Secret" goes so far as to offer the causal mechanism for this relationship between thoughts and outcomes: Your thoughts have a magnetism that attracts the things you imagine to you. Imagine your partner proposing and it will happen.
The broad decision lesson? If someone can make you fail by combing over your plans, you should be combing over your own plans in the same way.Think about it like this. Would you be better off planning a route using an old paper map or an app like Waze? The paper map shows clear roads and no obstacles. Waze looks ahead to see where there is heavy traffic, road closures, or an accident, helping you navigate around the obstacles in your path.
Wouldn't it be better to examine the patient before they've died? Premortems allow you to do just that. When you conduct a premortem, you imagine a future in which you have failed to achieve a goal or a decision has worked out poorly, and look back from that future to identify why that failure occurred.
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