OPEC alliance considers delay to its output hike, but faces a U.S. shale industry 'itching to drill again'

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OPEC+ considers delay to its output hike, but faces a U.S. shale industry 'itching to drill again'

Ron Smith, an oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets, believes there are reasons to be bullish on prices, especially on a six-month view. In a research note emailed to CNBC last week, he said that oil could go to the mid-$50s by the end of 2021.Croft: The Trump administration is going to make it more difficult for Biden to roll back sanctions against Iran as part of a nuclear dealBut both Smith and Bain point out that OPEC+ will be keeping a keen eye on U.S.

The U.S. industry is now a key swing supplier in global markets, and has been a thorn in the side of OPEC for the last decade — gradually taking on more market share at OPEC's expense. The recent rally in oil prices could supercharge a return in American rig counts —BCS Global Markets are therefore cautious on the recent price rally, despite their bullish outlook. The investment bank says there is substantial supply waiting in the wings from OPEC+ and "hyper-dynamic U.S.

" was rising steadily this fall, even before oil began its most recent rally. We think that as oil prices head towards $50/bbl, a key inflection point may be crossed, accelerating U.S. oil drilling activity and, with a small lag, oil production," Smith said. "We are watching OPEC+, which in turn is likely watching for any reaction from U.S. shale producers," he added.

Bain also concluded that a gradual recovery in U.S. production, alongside the return of "some" OPEC+ supply, will act as a ceiling on oil prices in the not too distant future.

 

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