Consumers with children should start receiving monthly checks from the federal government on Thursday, as $150 billion in expanded child tax credits begins flowing to bank accounts.
The upshot could be gains in discretionary spending, particularly for lower- income households. According to Cowen analysts, the credits could deliver $37 billion in additional spending over the next 12 months, including an extra $11 billion on groceries, $6.5 billion at restaurants, and more than $10 billion across sectors such as apparel, alcohol, and cannabis.
Grocery sales are expected to decline this year, following a surge in 2020, as consumers eat out more and cook less. But Chen estimates that the two-year annual growth rate for groceries should average 3.2%, well above the 2.7% five-year average from 2014 to 2019. Darden Restaurants also performs well on that metric, with 52% of its Yard House and 48% of its Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen customers receiving the tax credits, according to Charles.
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