Global bonds and stocks dived on Tuesday and the Australian dollar struggled near its lowest level in a month after surprisingly high US inflation stoked concerns the Federal Reserve will push through steeper and faster interest rate rises and risk plunging its economy into a recession.
“The RBA [Reserve Bank] hasn’t seen the high inflation numbers that we’ve seen elsewhere around the globe, but the RBA and the market may very well price in a sharper hiking cycle, and that could also lead to inversion in the Aussie curve,” said Daniel Siluk, portfolio manager at bond fund Kapstream Capital.
“More worryingly for the Fed is inflation expectations also appear to be becoming de-anchored,” said Tapas Strickland, director in economics and markets at NAB, citing the well-followed University of Michigan survey showing price growth expectations at 3.3 per cent, the highest since 2008. “While we still expect spending growth to remain strong in the near-term – underpinned by the reopening of the economy – the outlook over the next year now has more material headwinds,” said George Tharenou, UBS chief economist of Australia.
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