Imagine watching the often volatile stock market more like the relative slow-motion tracking of home prices.
One yardstick was what I’ll call “real-time” – the last trading day of a month vs. a year earlier’s result. The other is the same 12-month math just using a three-month moving average of the Wilshire 5000. This is a rough replica of housing’s widely watched Case-Shiller indexes. But the pandemic era’s initial lockdowns crushed stocks. Economic unknowns pushed the real-time results to a 12% year-over-year loss by the end of March 2020. My 3-month average cooled to an 11% gain at the same moment.
And at the year’s end of 2020, as vaccines were on the way to dampen the pandemic’s health issues, stocks in real-time were up 18% for the year and my 3-month average was up 16%.
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