Rising interest rates should see share prices fall, but as the cash rate has risen since May, the SEven better, dividends from large-cap favourites have been surprisingly generous. BHP has paid 9.68 per cent for the year to date; Fortescue, 9.35 per cent; Tabcorp, 13 per cent; Harvey Norman, 9.24 per cent. CBA lifted its dividend 20 per cent and JB Hi-Fi by 16 per cent.Suddenly, investing looks easy again.
That doesn’t mean it’s time to double down. Rather than be tempted to increase allocations to equities to chase income, Dion Hershan, portfolio manager of the UBS Australian Share Fund and head of Australian equities at Yarra Capital Management, says dividends should be compared with the risk-free rate.“The [share] market yields about 4.2 per cent,” he says, “and you can get reasonably similar returns on term deposits.
Not all sectors are the same, however. Fairly steady dollar-value dividend yields for the banks are high because valuations are low, and distributions for energy and resources companies whipsaw up and down with business conditions. As the pandemic receded, and earnings recovered along with the economy, boards approved dividends to flow once more.
When Hershan has income to reallocate in his fund, he will reinvest in a company if its dividend reinvestment plan offers shares at a meaningful discount. Otherwise, he will look over the market for the “best possible home” for every other dollar.Before being “seduced by an attractive-looking yield”, Hughes says investors can check the prospects for future payments by looking at a company’s earnings cycle with the understanding that a boom in profitability may recede.
When deciding whether to hold a stock for income, the quality and sustainability of its dividends are key. BHP may have yielded above 9 per cent over the past year, but the five-year average is 6.75 per cent and it paid below 5 per cent for six of the past 10 years.
(Currency hedged) USD 1-2yr bonds 4.7%-5% risk free return look pretty compelling compared to pretty much everything else out there at the moment.
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