When the year began, Democrats realized that the economy presented President Joe Biden with a major challenge to his hopes to win a second term. Americans’was at levels associated with incumbent defeats, and surveys showed the economy was front of mind for many voters.
The public’s unhappiness with the economy was rooted in fundamentals. The economy had grown by a solid three percent in the final quarter of 2011, but the public was stillthat resulted in full-year growth of just 1.5 percent. The unemployment rate was 8.3 percent, down from the peak of 9.9 percent in the closing days of the Bush administration but above what history suggested would be normal in a recovery.
Growth was sluggish in 2012, with the economy growing at a worse than two percent annual rate in the first half of the year, but the employment situation improved. Unemployment fell to 7.7 percent by November 2012. By the final Gallup poll before the election,, with an official reading of -1, and Obama won his re-election bid.Many Democrats were predicting and hoping that that would play out again this year.
While some are tempted to ascribe these poor polling numbers for the economy on partisanship, the numbers do not really support that idea. Republicans are deeply unhappy with the economy, with 72 percent viewing the state of the economy as poor. But, and 30 percent say it is only fair. On the other side, only five percent of Democrats describe the economy as excellent and just two percent of independents do.facing the country has risen a lot.
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