Surging oil prices might account for some of the stock market’s sideways performance since early September, according to one Wall Street analyst, with crude knocking on the door of a level that traditionally starts to bite into economic activity.
“Such oil-price strength is likely a contributor to the rangebound nature of [the S&P 500] since the 9/2 high, along with plateauing earnings estimates, a more hawkish Fed and mixed public flows,” Emanuel wrote. Past slowdowns that followed oil-price spikes “have also been accompanied by increased equity market volatility albeit with medium-term small-cap outperformance,” he said, using the table below to illustrate how past crude-price jumps have affected equities in the past.
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