Estimates have been falling for 2023 quarters as well, and Goldman Sachs recently cut its 2023 S&P 500 earnings per share growth forecast to zero, citing weakening profit margins.
As of Friday, analysts were forecasting a 0.4% fall in year-over-year fourth-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. That compares with the 5.8% increase they forecast on Oct. 1. The last time there was a quarterly decline in S&P 500 earnings was in the third quarter of 2020, when companies were still reeling from the initial shock of and disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The weakening profit outlook only adds to worries for investors, who have been concerned that aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to control inflation could lead to a recession. The S&P 500"Third-quarter earnings, they missed expectations. But what we've been focusing on really is 2023," said Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners in Boston.
"For the Fed to achieve their inflation targets, they're going to have to push the economy into a recession," which means 2023 profit estimates "have to come down a lot more," he said.Technology and tech-related companies have accounted for more than half of the negative S&P 500 profit revisions for the fourth quarter, Jonathan Golub, head of U.S. equity strategy and quantitative research at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent research note.
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