Investors have a new spring in their step. After months of losing money on just about everything they owned, they suddenly made money on almost anything they touched in November.
What’s driving this suddenly upbeat mood? Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, identifies two major factors. First is a conviction that the world is over the worst when it comes to inflation. Second is the widespread belief that China is going to have to ditch its zero-COVID strategy and reopen its economy after a couple of years of rotating lockdowns.
Take inflation and recessions, for example. They are two sides of the same coin. A slowing economy should reduce demand and thereby relieve pressure on inflation. The question is just how big a downturn will be needed to bring prices back under control. The economics team at investment manager BlackRock Inc. is even grimmer. Taming inflation in the U.S. is likely to require a deep recession, they argue in a recent outlook. If the Federal Reserve is truly intent on grinding inflation all the way back to 2 per cent, it has no choice but to deal “a significant blow to the economy,” they say.
If China were to suddenly reverse its zero-COVID strategy and open up its economy, allowing more street traffic and more free movement of people, its demand for oil would spike. So would its demand for other goods.
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