Seemingly every day, U.S. investors are being buffeted by a flurry of sometimes conflicting economic data.
Then, one day later on Friday, investors received readings from the S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing gauge, as well as the S&P Global Flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index, both of which showed improvement in April.As economists, portfolio managers and stock-market strategists try to parse a nonstop flood of data to glean some clues about where the U.S.
“We think there’s an elevated probability of recession during the second half of the year and into 2024, but timing with any precision is admittedly very challenging,” Jolly said during an email exchange with MarketWatch. “We are closely watching for inflection points in key economic data.” “It is an empirical regularity, it’s based on historical relationships, that doesn’t mean it has to always hold. This is not a law of nature. If the Sahm rule were going to break, it would be this time,” Sahm said.
“The Sahm rule is interesting because the job market is so in focus right now. Consumer confidence has been low for a while so it feels less predictive for this particular environment,” said Callie Cox, a U.S. investment analyst at eToro, in emailed comments. “It turns out that people know what’s coming because they have a sense of what’s happening in their communities. If they think bad times are coming, then they will,” said Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee.
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