These financial market signals are telling a different story about China's economy

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'The curious thing, though, is that such doom and gloom is not reflected in what the market is signaling,' Gavekal's Louis-Vincent Gave wrote.

Xi Jinping makes a public pledge of allegiance to the Constitution at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 10, 2023.China's economy is stumbling, but financial markets don't indicate that it will lead to a systemic crisis."The curious thing, though, is that such doom and gloom is not reflected in what the market is signaling."

After a first-quarter bounce, China's economic rebound from zero-COVID policies has been disappointing, with factories and consumers slowing down. Meanwhile, foreign investors have withdrawn in droves, with Beijing's attempts to support its marketsFocusing on the banking sector, he noted that the share price performance of lenders tends to drop months ahead of any systemic crisis, as had happened before 2008 global financial crisis.

Gave also pointed out that iron ore prices, which are sensitive to China's economy, have jumped 50% from their October 2022 low.

 

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