The U.S. dollar is completing its first “golden cross” since July 2021, which could mean the greenback is going higher and more problems for stocks.
The index itself stood at 105.47 on Friday, trading at its highest level since March 10, 2023, the day that the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, sparking a brief rally in safety plays like the dollar. On the other hand, a “death cross” occurs when the 50-day moving average breaks below the 200-day. A “death cross” in the U.S. dollar occurred on Jan. 10. Afterward, the buck trended lower for the next six months, ultimately hitting its lowest level of 2023 on July 14. Since then, the buck has been in a sustained uptrend that some currency strategists think has grounds to continue, now that the Federal Reserve bolstered its forecast to keep interest rates above 5% through 2024.
And if the previous golden cross is any guide, the dollar’s recent gains could be just the beginning of a larger advance. After a previous golden cross on July 29, 2021, the dollar index gained roughly 25%, advancing from about 91 to just shy of 115 in late September of 2022, when it touched its strongest level in two decades, according to FactSet data.