The health of the U.S. consumer moves into the spotlight next week, with investors watching corporate earnings reports and retail sales data for further confirmation of the economic resilience that has boosted equity markets this month.
“For the most part, the majority of the economic data stream has been positive,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. “Hopefully that gets confirmation with some of the more consumer-facing companies that are reporting next week.” Expectations have firmed that the economy will avoid a downturn despite a long period of elevated interest rates. Goldman Sachs, for example, lowered the odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months by five percentage points to 15% following the employment data.
Still, the consumer-spending environment has grown “murkier” following layoffs at financial services and technology companies in recent months, back-to-back hurricanes in the Southeast and a brief dockworkers strike, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, raising the stakes for data and company reports to provide clarity.
At the other end of the income spectrum, investors said they were focusing on how less affluent consumers were grappling with the rise in prices over the past few years.
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