“2023 is likely to mark the weakest sales year since 2001,” Sondhi said in the note.Similarly, it would be a mistake to expect home prices to rebound this year. Though prices didn’t fall as much as expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, TD economists think they will still face steep declines thanks to higher interest rates, which have gone higher than they thought. The Bank of Canada’s key policy rate rose to 4.25 per cent in December from 0.25 per cent in March of 2022.
It won’t be until 2024 that things truly turn around for the housing market. TD expects both sales and average home prices to post gains next year once the economic picture clears, with prices rising 3.9 per cent and sales growing 18.9 per cent on average nationally.
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