Markets are overstating the severity of pain that higher interest rates and elevated inflation will inflict on consumer spending, positioning the retail sector to positively surprise in the upcoming reporting season, Citi predicted.about the challenges caused by the Reserve Bank’s 3 percentage points of rate rises and inflation which jumped to a near 33-year high of 7.8 per cent in the December quarter.
Citi analysts pointed out that only one in 10 Australian households will be affected by the looming “fixed rate mortgage cliff” – where those that fixed loans at a low rate during the pandemic roll off onto much higher variable rates. Citi also expects the highest concentration of positive earnings surprises in the banks, property, building materials and transport sectors. The broker sees negative surprises in mining, healthcare and travel stocks.Citi said it prefers product manufacturers over service providers in the healthcare sector given they are less reliant on government funding and have lower exposure to healthcare labour shortages.