The North American economy is expected to have added 22.5K jobs vs. 63.8K in September. The Unemployment Rate is seen rising a tick to 5.6%. If so, it would be the highest rate since January 2022. NBF Job creation may have slowed to 15K in October, reflecting a loss of momentum in the Canadian economy. This modest gain, combined with another significant expansion of the labour force and an unchanged participation rate , should translate into a two-tenth increase in the unemployment rate, to 5.
While employment surged in the prior month, most of the increase was driven by education which can be volatile at the start of a school year, and because of that there is the risk of a notable deceleration in October. The 20K increase in employment we expect for October would be below the still rapid pace of population growth, and result in a tick up in the unemployment rate to 5.6%.