The Federal Reserve’s aggressive start of the easing cycle has rekindled inflation worries in the U.S. bond market, as some investors fear looser financial conditions could re-ignite price pressures.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the 50 basis point interest rate cut that kick-started the U.S. central bank’s descent was a “recalibration” of rates aimed at maintaining strength in the labor market while inflation moves sustainably to the Fed’s 2% goal. An auction of 10-year TIPS on Thursday, after the Fed’s rate-setting meeting, was lapped up by investors, with non-dealers absorbing 93.4% of the $17 billion Treasury debt sale, the highest share since January. Flows into U.S. dollar inflation-linked bonds, however, were negative in the week ending on Monday, according to LSEG data.
The Goldman Sachs U.S. financial conditions index, a measure of the availability of credit in the economy, eased over the course of this year despite interest rates remaining at their highest in over two decades. The day after the Fed’s decision, it decreased to its lowest since May 2022. With the same information at hand, however, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she worried the larger move could be interpreted as “a premature declaration of victory” against inflation. She dissented over the U.S. central bank’s half-percentage-point interest rate cut last week and favored a quarter-percentage-point reduction instead.
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