More tax, more borrowing, more spending. This was a big budget by every measure, but will loom largest for businesses that will bear the brunt of the revenue raising. Around £25bn of those tax rises will come from the 1.2 percentage point increase in employer national insurance contributions to 15%. This is a muscular hike even if it is in the middle of the speculated 1 percentage point to 2 percentage point range under consideration, and so could have been worse.
The Office for Budget Responsibility concludes it will be all three, stating: 'We assume this lowers real wages and profits, and workers and firms reduce labour supply and demand in response, reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average-hours equivalents.' The OBR forecasts that growth will also slow from its March budget assessment, levelling off at 1.