Uncertainty is lingering for investors following a recent mixed batch of data — softer-than-expected inflation, stronger-than-anticipated jobs and wages — as we kick off the third week before Christmas.
The manager says he’s finding it hard to get constructive on these “overvalued markets with ragged and divergent internals” — conditions that he notes were seen at 2000, 2007, and 2020 market peaks. That’s even as they’ve come off the extreme levels seen at the beginning of 2022 when interest rates were at zero, he said. Hikes since then mean yield-seeking speculation has pared back, leaving the “equity market at speculative valuations, but without the support of speculative pressures,” said Hussman.“In our view, steep market losses generally reflect risk-aversion meeting a low-risk premium.
The markets Stock futures ES00 YM00 NQ00 are falling, along with Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y TMUBMUSD02Y and the dollar DXY is a touch weaker. Crude prices CL.1 are higher after OPEC + left production levels unchanged and a $60 per barrel Russian price limit agreed by the EU and G-7 kicks in. Credit Suisse CS shares rallied on a report Saudi Arabia’s crown price wants to invest in an investment bank spinoff.
Stagflation.
A lot of younger investors say 40 and under, maybe 45 and under. I have a limited view of what has happened over 100 years. And lived in a lot of their lives with zero interest rate. Include the Talking Heads✅
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