, but it remains within its downtrend. Bulls have gotten excited with every rebound. Each time the price reached the channel top, I pointed out that each previous rally had ended there. Each time, bulls have ridiculed me. Since the last time I said it, the benchmark has fallen for five straight weeks, the longest losing streak since mid-May's seven-week drop. The downtrend's test will be the 200-week moving average, which bears could not break through in June, September, or October.
Bond-market bulls are taking advantage of the recent rally in shorter-dated Treasuries following the December jobs report, which showed slowing wage growth and a contraction in the service-sector economy. This has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve is approaching the end of its current rate-hiking cycle and may start easing monetary policy by the end of the year.
In addition, there is a significant disagreement between the financial markets and Fed officials; the latter plan to continue raising rates until inflation approaches the central bank's 2% target. Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities, told Bloomberg she believes the market is incorrect in anticipating a return to Fed rate cuts and said she expects the Fed to raise its key rate to around 5.5% and keep it there for the entire year.
than the 2-year benchmark. If data shows that inflation is persistent and the economy remains strong, Treasury yields may rise further as the expected easing is removed from the market.Swap traders predict that the Fed will continue raising its benchmark rate until it reaches just under 5% in June before it is lowered to around 4.5% by the end of the year.
....alright....me ready...
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Week of Reckoning (?)
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