Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 25

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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - July 25 gold silver Fed

In Today's Digital Newspaper Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was involved in a car crash Tuesday morning while traveling to a campaign event in Chattanooga, Tennessee, his campaign said — but the GOP presidential contender and his staff were uninjured.

A Memphis trading house has started a petition drive calling on USDA to release the monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports at 9 a.m. ET, when U.S. futures markets are closed so everyone has time to digest the data. More in Markets section. Uncertainty over the path of inflation later this summer makes it hard to predict the Federal Reserve's next steps following a likely quarter-percentage point increase in interest rates this week. More in Markets section.

The Biden administration is discussing lifting sanctions on a Chinese police forensics institute suspected of participating in human-rights abuses, people familiar with the matter said, in a bid to secure Beijing's renewed cooperation in fighting the fentanyl crisis, the Wall Street Journal reports.

EPA said on Monday it would develop a multi-chemical, multi-species approach to meeting its obligations to protect threatened and endangered species from harmful chemicals. Details in Policy section. U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow gained 183.55, 0.52%, at 35,411.24, its 11th consecutive day of gains, and the longest winning streak since February 2017. The S&P 500 rallied 18.30 points, 0.40%, at 4,554.64. The S&P 500 has advanced 19% this year even as analysts expect 2023 corporate earnings to barely inch up. The Nasdaq rose 26.06 points, 0.19%, at 14,058.87.

Moreover, about one quarter of participants in the July poll now believe that the odds of a recession within the next 12 months are 25% or less. There are a few factors contributing to this shift, including an enduringly strong labor market and a recent decline in important consumer price metrics.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the futures markets place the likelihood of the Fed maintaining the same interest rates in September at over 80%. The probability of another rate hike in November gradually increases, with the market projecting a 32% chance of another quarter-point hike at the November meeting. Conversely, there's a slightly lower probability that another rate increment won't occur until December.

The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany plummeted to 87.3 in July, marking an eight-month low from last November and coming in beneath the market forecast of 88.0. This indicates a potential delay in the anticipated recovery of the German economy, which is the largest in Europe. Key contributing factors seem to be lasting inflationary issues and increasing costs of borrowing.

• Crude oil hovers near three-month high. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased towards $79 per barrel on Tuesday, which is close to a three-month high. This rise is being supported by the potential for tighter global supplies and increased demand from China. The OPEC+ countries have contributed to this situation through their output cuts and are prepared to put further measures into place if necessary.

The major objective behind these steps seems to be to manage impending IMF debt payments, which are due to the tune of around $3.4 billion in the coming months of July and August. Argentina appears hopeful that these changes may help alter economic goals set with the IMF and expedite some of the planned disbursements.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE — The recent military offensives by Russia against a port on the Danube River, as part of its increasingly aggressive strategy to hinder a vital Ukrainian wheat export route, has led to a sharp surge in global wheat prices — now at a five-month peak.

Furthermore, Peskov revealed that Russia plans to discuss grain and fertilizer exports with African nations at a Russia-Africa summit set to happen on Thursday and Friday. — The Biden administration is contemplating removing sanctions on a Chinese police forensics institute, despite allegations of the institute's involvement in human rights violations, the Wall Street Journal reports. This consideration is part of an attempt to re-engage China in the fight against the ongoing fentanyl crisis. During a meeting in Beijing last month, U.S.

 

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