Treasury yields are spiking to levels not seen in over 15 years, causing sell-offs in many of the market's biggest bond funds. And some Wall Street strategists see further downside ahead. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF closed at $89.18 on Monday, which was its lowest close since Feb. 10, 2011, according to FactSet. The fund is down more than 10% for the year on a price basis, and it has lost 8.5% on a total return basis.
50bp recent repricing of the neutral rate across a range of metrics. A further repricing beyond levels c.3-3.5% would drive a further pricing out of the '24 and '25 cuts, and potentially push 10yT to levels closer to 5%," Braizinha added. The Fed's target interest rate is already above 5%, as are short-term Treasury yields.