Market sets record — Breaking down whether the bulls are in the clear or a peak is imminent

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History tells us that major indexes hitting new records is generally more a positive sign of a strong trend than a warning of an imminent peak

You can't argue with a market making new record highs, though it's fair game to interrogate the tape about its assumptions and intentions. Stocks completed a round trip and then some over the course of seven weeks, a shakeout of over-aggressive investor positioning at the end of the first quarter and a test of Wall Street's avid faith in an ideal soft economic landing.

It's fair to point out that the recent pullback low failed to show the kind of indiscriminate purge and rise in fear that would classically cleanse the market and set up a high-energy, lasting new up leg. But bull markets don't always need a scary reset and the history of rallies after a 5-7% pullback shows the recovery rarely fails to reach at least 10%. Measured by sell-side attitudes, caution still prevails.

 

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